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Guessing game?

Say you face this suit:

 

   ♦A x x
 
N
W   E
S
 
   ♦K J 10

 

You need to guess the location of the queen. If West had opened (say) 1 NT, you’d put him with the queen – unless he had already turned up with 13 points outside (Weak Notrump). If West had opened (say) 3 ♠, you’d place East with the queen; partly because West’s bid shows weakness, but also because (with seven spades) West has just six cards that could be the queen of diamonds, whereas East has many more. Or you could try a spot of psychology, leading the jack of diamonds from hand and tempting West into covering, or hitching. A disinterested low card probably means he has no queen, so you now rise with the ace then lead back to your ten. The only certain way to pick up the queen, however, is to force your opponents to led the suit.

Take this deal featuring Norwegian World Champion Boye Brogeland.

Board Teams
South Deals
E-W Vul
K 4 2
7 5 3
A 9 3
A 5 4 2
A
A K Q J 6 2
7 6 4
10 6 3
 
N
W   E
S
 
J 9 7 6
10 9 4
Q 5 2
J 9 7
 
Q 10 8 5 3
8
K J 10 8
K Q 8
West North East South
      1 ♠1
3 2 4 ♠3 Pass Pass
Pass
  1. Playing Five-card Majors
  2. Intermediate / Strong Jump Overcall guaranteeing six+ cards.
  3. Not really worth game but 3ª sounds like it might be a stretch, so takes the pressure off, hoping for short hearts opposite.

West led out two top hearts v 4 ♠, declarer ruffing and leading a small trump to West’s bare ace, West forcing declarer with a third top heart. Ruffing again, declarer cashed the queen of trumps and saw West discard (a heart), leaving East with more trumps than him.


He now led out the three top clubs, both opponents following, to reach this ending (see across): Unwilling to broach diamonds and face the dreaded two-way guess for the missing queen, declarer cashed the king of trumps, then led the thirteenth club. If East discarded, declarer would score his ninth and tenth tricks with the ace-king of diamonds. So East ruffed. But he was then forced to lead a diamond, giving declarer a free finesse and his game.

 

 
K
A 9 3
5
J 6
7 6 4
 
N
W   E
S
 
J 9
Q 5 2
 
10
K J 10 8

 

Unwlling to broach diamonds and face the dreaded two-way guess for the missing queen, declarer cashed the king of trumps, then led the thirteenth club. If East discarded, declarer would score his ninth and thenth tricks with the ace-king of diamonds. So East ruffed. But was then forced to lead a diamond, giving declarer a free finesse and his game.

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