Andrew:

Initial Utilities of your opening lead

It is perhaps helpful to think of each type of lead as having a base utility (out of 10). Ace from ace-king would be 10, a singleton 9, king from king-queen 7, away from a king 2, away from an ace 0 etc. The bidding alters that utility number.

For example if the opponents bid your singleton suit, its utility goes down from 9 to a 7. It may still be your best lead, but it may not; if you have, say, a queen from queen-jack, a 6 to start with, that 6 would increase to 8 if it was the only unbid suit, so overtaking the singleton.
For starters, let’s assign an initial utility to the following holdings (assume it’s a trump contract, and these holdings are not in trumps):

Holding	Initial Utility
AK74	10
3	9
KQJ6	8
KQ76	7
QJ104	7
QJ52	6
83	5
852	4
Q952	4
J4	3
K752	2
A1074	0

If the auction is entirely unilluminating (as this deal’s), you would lead according to the above utilities.

South Deals
None Vul

♠	Q 10 3
♥	10 8 4 2
♦	A K Q 7
♣	K 8

♠	A K 7 4
♥	J 6 5
♦	3
♣	J 9 7 4 2

N
W		E
S

♠	9 8 5 2
♥	—
♦	10 9 8 6 5
♣	A Q 6 3

♠	J 6
♥	A K Q 9 7 3
♦	J 4 2
♣	10 5

East	South	West	North
	1 ♥	Pass	4 ♥
All pass

What happened
Misassessing the initial utility of the ace from ace-king lead, relative to the singleton, West led ♦ 3. Declarer won ♦ J, drew trumps,and cashed ♦ AKQ. 10 tricks and game made.

What should have happened
Ace from ace-king gives you a free look at dummy and thus keeps all your options open - you can always switch to diamonds. On ♠ A lead, East gives a discouraging signal of ♠ 2 (throw low means no). Given dummy’s strength in the suit, West does not switch to diamonds, rather to clubs. East scores ♣ AQ and leads a spade to West’s ♠ K. Down one.

If you remember one thing...
The Initial Utilities of various holdings for the opening lead.

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Andrew:

Initial Utilities of your opening lead