Here is a cautionary tale. You pick up: (Ignore the vulnerability) 

♠ K 8 6 2 ♥ 9 7 4 ♦ K J 4 2 ♣ 8 3

If the auction starts, 1♥ -1♠ -2♣ -??

Say you bid 2♠, thinking to yourself: ‘maybe we’ll be allowed to play there, my flat seven count doesn’t justify a 3♠ bid’.

Just occasionally, you will be allowed to play 2♠, and partner will make precisely eight tricks. You can give yourself a pat on the back. But I hate your bid! Here are a couple of bad things that might happen:

A) The bidding continues:

1♥-1♠-2♣-2♠ 3♣-P -P - ??

Now you have to guess whether to bid 3♠. Sometimes it will be right to do so – after all, you do have a nine-card spade fit. So say you do bid 3♠. This is the full auction:

1♥-1♠-2♣-2♠ 3♣-P  -P - 3♠ P  -P  -P - Dbl P  -P  -P

Disaster! You run into a trump stack and partner goes three down doubled.

Here’s what would have happened if you’d bid 3♠ straight away, instead of the dreaded two bites of the cherry:

1♥-1♠-2♣-3♠ 4♣........

B) The bidding continues:

1♥-1♠-2♣-2♠ 3♥-P  -4♥ - P P  -P.

Making 4♥ .

Here’s what would have happened if you’d
have bid 3♠ immediately:

1♥-1♠-2♣-3♠ P  -P  -P.

Yes – one of the opponents might have gambled 4♥ over your 3♠. But they might not have. So back to the hand. I would recommend an immediate 3♠ – bidding to the level of the fit. Second choice would be a (wet) 2♠ – but then to shut up. Worst route – by far – is the tippy-toe two bites route of 2♠ then 3♠.

After (trick two) winning ♥ K and drawing trumps, declarer runs ♦ 9 and holds his losses to one heart, ♦ A and two clubs. Nine tricks – 3 ♠ made for E-W

Table two